Tuesday, June 07, 2011

What's that got to do with the price of bread?

The warmest UK spring for 350 years and the second driest for 100 has left the southeastern UK in drought. Water restrictions are in place in much of France and the government has set aside €700 million to support struggling farmers, while crop losses will be widespread in Germany too. Indeed, low water levels in major rivers could shut down French nuclear plants as the heat in 2003 did. The southern US has its own problems, with an estimated US$4 billion in losses due to drought already this year, despite the recent heavy flooding on the Mississippi nearby. Drought in China had left shipping on the Yangtze stranded and four million with trouble finding water until recent downpours now threaten floods in some areas. And this follows within twelve months of the Russian heatwave that was six standard deviations above the average and led to wheat exports being cancelled until recently, floods in Pakistan that displaced around twenty million people and decimated crops, while those in Queensland caused billions of dollars in lost crops.

These disasters combined with high oil prices (and no likelihood of them falling significantly barring a further worsening of global economy), an increasing share of fertile land being diverted into growing largely pointless biofuels, declining water tables (more than half the world's people live in countries where water tables are falling), a growing demand for land and water intensive western-style diets in the rising Asian middle class, soil degradation removing an area the size of Greece each year from the world's arable land, declining improvements in yields from agronomy (where something of a plateau seems to have been reached in many places as farmers catch up with scientists), and a volatile commodities market with cash looking for the next quick profit and we have a perfect recipe for the very kind of event that climate scientists, ecologists and economists have been warning about for some time: food price spikes. The UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) has calculated a Food Price Index since 1990 and the last six months have seen figures rise to their highest since tracking began.

It might be frustrating for us in the UK if the price of bread goes up and we can't afford our holiday to Northern Africa (not that we're going this year; drought-stricken France it is then), but it is a bit more than an inconvenience or a disappointment in places where up to 80% of income is spent on food. It is a recipe for hunger, disease and social unrest. The last dramatic spike in 2008 led to riots in thirty countries and the government of Haiti being overthrown. The spike that has continued since early this year has already played a part in the Arab Spring and is pushing tens of millions back into malnutrition.

This is what climate change looks like (at least for now - remember we are only 0.8 degrees into what may well be a 4 degrees plus experience). Not that every hot day or drought or flood or snow storm can be blamed on us, but that our actions have affected the system to a degree that overall productivity of our agricultural system is made less reliable (one recent study claimed that our changing climate has already put a 5.5% dent in wheat yields), threatening in turn the political system. Climate change is not the only pressure on the food system, but it is the wild-card in the pack of predicaments. Another disturbing development is that projections for expected food production may need to be downgraded in light of another recent study that found that higher carbon dioxide levels contribute less benefit to crops than previously thought.

Rising population and dietary changes mean that food requirements are projected to double by 2050. There are bright spots of opportunity, but the target is looking increasingly out of reach.

A recent report released by Oxfam predicted a doubling of food prices by 2030, which has led to a flurry of media analysis (I found this case study to be particularly illuminating of the systemic problems in how we currently do things).

What are we to do in light of this? All kinds of things. But we can begin by taking a closer look at the food on our plate and becoming interested in where it has come from, what it cost (socially and ecologically) to get it there and what alternatives are already available to us. If we pray "give us this day our daily bread", we cannot take food for granted.

26 comments:

Josh Luton said...

Hi Byron,

I have been following your blog for some time and I really appreciate your posts. I just finished the first year of my M.Div program at Duke Divinity School and am interested in the intersections between the life of faith and how we eat. In the bigger picture I am interested in all the connections between the Christian life and care for creation as well. I am strongly considering pursuing a ph.D in this area, though I am still unsure whether that will end up under the heading of 'Theology', 'Ethics', 'Biblical Studies', or any combination of the above. So, are there any book recommendations you have to test out the waters in some of those areas? So far my primary exposure has been to Wendell Berry, Ellen Davis, Norman Wirzba, and Allen Verhey. Any suggestions would be greatly appreciated. Continue the good work and I look forward to hearing from you.

Best,
Josh Luton

byron smith said...

Hi Josh, what an excellent area to look into! I suggested that the next annual conference of the Society for the Study of Christian Ethics (a UK society) be on food, but no one else seemed very interested (which I felt to be odd, given the variety of issues involved and the richness of scriptural and theological resources for addressing it).

I'm not sure I have many book recommendations (I enjoy Michael Pollan's writing on the topic if you haven't already come across him - not a Christian but thoughtful in his ethical reflections. This is a good shortish intro), though I have a friend studying in Durham who has recently had an article published in the area and so who might have more suggestions. Here is the blog and here is the reference to the article. Hmmm, actually, maybe his interest is more in who we eat with rather than what's on the table (ethics of hospitality rather than food per se), now that I look again at the article. Still, you could try him. He's a lovely guy (also called Josh).

I think in another life I might have chosen to do a PhD on food. At least it would be easier to explain than my current one.

Oh, one more thought - Michael Northcott has a good chapter on food and climate change in his 2007 book A Moral Climate. Chapter eight.

I've posted a few times on food before, though generally my links have been to NGO/expert reports about food security rather than theological reflections on the topic.

As I said in this post, I expect this topic to only become more and more relevant and discussed in the coming years. Getting into it now is a good idea.

byron smith said...

NYT: Damaging the earth to feed its people.

"farming and livestock grazing are not just potential victims of climate change — they are major causes of it."

byron smith said...

Climate already affecting vulnerable farmers.

byron smith said...

Bloomberg: this piece puts together what's happening to wheat crops around the world in statistics.

"In 32 years, I’ve never seen so many problems in so many places,” said Dan Basse, the president of AgResource Co., a farm researcher in Chicago. “We’re concerned about the world story now,” said Basse, who has been studying agricultural markets since 1979 and expects prices as high as $10 this year.

byron smith said...

The FAO publishes regular reports called Food Outlook.

byron smith said...

Joe Romm has a good post looking at the link between food production and carbon emissions.

The standout surprise for me was the footprint of cheese in the first graph.

Josh Luton said...

Thanks for all the feedback. I've read some of Pollan (Omnivore's Dilemma and In Defense of Food), but it's great to get a look at some of the other articles. I know there are people out there who are concerned about these issues and theological reflection, but it's nice to be reminded. I'm originally from Oklahoma and Kansas, and that part of the US doesn't care a bit about where their food comes from, let alone the cost of some of the industrial production of the food. Thanks again for the feedback.

byron smith said...

SMH: The deadliest kind of food fight. (H/T Geoff)

byron smith said...

The Carbon Brief has an extensive list of links concerning links between climate change, food production and global hunger.

byron smith said...

CP: Just how bad is the drought in Texas?

byron smith said...

Mongabay: Worst drought in East Africa for 60 years.

byron smith said...

CP: Food prices hover at historic highs.

byron smith said...

Guardian: High prices are here to stay.

byron smith said...

Guardian: Ethanol and the price of food.

byron smith said...

Guardian: Developing diets not to blame for price spikes. This FAO report places most of the short term blame on biofuel subsidies.

byron smith said...

Michael Tobis: The Texan drought is not really a Texan dought at all. Ouch.

byron smith said...

CP: Texan drought and food crisis.

byron smith said...

Fifty years ago, food represented around 30 per cent of the average household budget, whereas nowadays it is nearer to 9 per cent.

In 1962, the average Chinese person ate just 4kg of meat per year: by 2005 that figure was 60kg and rising.

(I can't remember the source of these figures, but I had them in a draft post from a couple of years ago.)

byron smith said...

Damian Carrington: Map linking food security and conflict.

byron smith said...

Guardian: Role of speculation in food prices. A new report argues it is more significant than generally recognised.

byron smith said...

Guardian: Russian 2010 heatwave was made three times more likely due to anthropogenic climate change.

byron smith said...

Climate Change Exacerbates Scarcity in Already Food Insecure Regions.

Mapping places where malnutrition is already an issue with places predicted to face crop problems due to changing growing seasons.

byron smith said...

New report from the Commission on Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Change. Titled Achieving Food Security in the Face of Climate Change, it has a number of interesting recommendations, and a graph on page 19 that brings them together under three broad headings.

byron smith said...

CC: New study models effects of climate and other factors on the price of corn and finds that climate is likely to be far more significant than generally thought over the next few decades, largely through increased frequency and severity of heat waves.

byron smith said...

Larry Elliott: The era of cheap food is over.