Tuesday, October 16, 2007

Safest electorate in Australia

Without looking at the recent SMH guide, can anyone guess which Australian electorate is (politically) safest?

UPDATE: As various comments have pointed out, the true answer is not the one I had in mind. I misread one section of the Herald and so had thought Grayndler was the safest (it is actually the safest only in NSW), which is not where I am enrolled (Sydney), but where I am trying to put together another political forum for church. The safest seat is Mallee in Victoria, held by the Nationals with a margin of 24.7%.

UPDATE #2: In an attempt to save this post from total irrelevance, or perhaps to revel in it, here is a video for the music lovers:

17 comments:

geoffc said...

Is it Alan Cadman's? I don't know the name of the electorate, but the Hills area in Northwest Sydney.

Jonathan said...

In two party terms, I am enrolled in the safest Labor seat (as I suspect you are), although in all four of the safest Labor seats it might make more sense to compare Labor with the Greens than the Coalition.

As for safest in Australia, I'd guess a country seat somewhere.

Jo N Jules said...

Kuring-gai?

Donna said...

Isn't there a very safe independent seat in NSW - is that it? I'm thinking north...

michael jensen said...

Malcolm Turnbull's used to be pretty safe.

Mister Tim said...

The safest is held by the National Party, but I can't remember which electorate. It's close to a 25% margin, I believe. Maybe Page?

The second safest is held by the Liberal Party (Sharman Stone - which she originally won by standing against a sitting National Party MP). That would be Murray, I believe.

Mister Tim said...

Well, I was half right on my pick for the safest, but had the wrong state.

Charlie said...

My bet is Maranoa on the Darling Downs in Qld. The National party will always hold this...
http://www.maranoa.info

John Dekker said...

The redistribution as turned Turnbull's seat marginal - apparently, he only needs a swing of 2.5% against him to lose.

I was thinking Wilson Tuckey's seat, and that is indeed on 20%.

andrewE said...

I'm going with Bradfield, Brendan Nelson's seat.

Michael Canaris said...

John Forrest's Victorian seat of Mallee?

Moffitt the Prophet said...

The Northern Terrotory? has the Country-Liberl Party ever lost?

Mister Tim said...

Moffitt - actually, the electorate of Lingiarri (which covers something like 99.9% of the NT by area) is curently held by a Labor member, and the NT Territory Govt is currently Labor. However, the electorate that covers Darwin is held by the CLP.

Moffitt the Prophet said...

Thanks Mr Tim - I knew that the current Territorian government was Labor (it was the first time almost ever right?), but had forgot about the Federal seat.

Bruce Yabsley said...

The guy playng the opposition leader in the YouTube clip could much more plausibly have played Bomber Beazley than Kevin Rudd. I was too distracted by this to attend properly to the clip itself.

Jonathan said...

I thought exactly the same thing as Bruce.

byron smith said...

Me too.