Sooner than you think...

... the Arctic may be free of ice. Last year I remember hearing reports that by 2070, the Arctic ocean may have warmed enough to be ice-free in summer. More recently, I was shocked to hear that on new data, estimates had been moved forward to 2030. The IPCC bases its estimations on an averaged group of models, yet actual observed ice loss in the last few years has been outstripping even the most dire of predictions. In the last week, a report has come out arguing the Arctic Ocean could be ice-free in five and a half years: the summer of 2013.

This report doesn't even take into account the data from 2007, which has smashed all previous records.

Of course, the situation is very complex and of course this is only one of a number of different models and of course modelling climate is very difficult. But if you're still not convinced about the reality, importance or likely implications of climate change, I'm curious: what would it take to convince you?

Some world leaders are still not getting the message. Recent reports from the Bali conference (FAQ on Bali conference) indicate that the US, Canada and Japan are all blocking moves to include references to binding targets from the framework document that will guide the post-Kyoto emissions strategy. Here is a global petition, already at 55,000 in just 12 hours, to be delivered on Friday to delegates at the conference.
Fifteen points for correctly naming the body of water in the image above. Hint: I have never been to the Arctic Ocean.